In the old myth, Daedalus warned his son: Do not fly too high, or the sun will melt your wings. Do not fly too low, or the sea’s moisture will weigh you down. Travel between the extremes.
Successful teams also need to travel between the extremes, with complete certainty at one end of the spectrum and highly unlikely at the other, and, ideally, more towards the former.
Business leaders often talk about wanting 80% confidence. Not 100% confidence, but 80%. Although I tried finding the origin of this 80% figure, it seems to be an axiomatic rule of thumb.
In my experience with teams and leaders, 80% confidence seems to be a good rule of thumb.
Anything above 80% risks over-confidence and often proves unrealistic.
Anything below 50% is a coin-toss, a guess – or worse: an uninformed guess.
Nowadays, it can be calculated with models using historical data: if we say a project will take 10–12 weeks to complete, then out of a hundred ‘simulations’, eighty projects would be completed within that time period based on our past performance, with all similar conditions. 80% is not perfect, but it provides us enough clarity to make informed decisions and act with belief.
Interestingly, these probability ranges can be mapped quite nicely with the language people use (see the chart above which shows where people place probability based on wording).
Teams often instinctively mirror this language. When they say “probable” or “likely”, the confidence isn’t quite there. That’s the moment to explore where the potential uncertainty lies and potentially remove the risk.
When they claim “almost certain,” or “certain”, it’s encouraging, but you need to double check: is that wise confidence, or inexperience disguised as hubris? It’s important to know when making high-stakes decisions.
When teams say “highly likely,” “we believe,” “very good chance,” they are operating in the safe corridor between the extremes (ca. 65% – 85%). It also shows an acknowledgement that we can never be too certain.
Anything below “we believe” isn’t quite sufficient.
So you could say: when working withe teams, don’t base any decisions on anything less than belief!
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Note: some outcomes are highly unlikely but are possible with special operations. Future post coming up about that topic.